By The myth is that Tuesday’s Micron close still prices the $61.5 billion fiscal first-quarter guide. It does not. Micron Technology closed Tuesday 20 October 2026 at $896.07 on Nasdaq’s official daily series. That print prices a wider, slightly negative 90-day distribution: a bull case of $1,464.63, a base of $845.01, and a bear case of $585.63 through 31 December 2026. The company has not amended the guide it published on 30 September, which remains $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion.
The missing fact is the split between that document and the tape. The 30 September deck still counts 26 take-or-pay agreements at over 35 percent of revenue through 2030, with $32 billion of customer commitments, and the cash-flow statement shows $12.747 billion of deposit proceeds. The mean daily log-return is negative, so the base already sits under the close. Wednesday’s labor news was a split: Taichung signed and canceled Thursday’s mediation, while Taoyuan’s one-day strike was still planned.
Key facts
Micron closed at $896.07 on Tuesday 20 October 2026, down $8.83, or 0.98 percent, from Monday’s $904.90, on volume of 20,304,160 shares. Source: Nasdaq daily history, 20 October 2026.
The 20-day average is $1,016.05 and the 50-day average is $984.37. The close is $119.98, or 11.81 percent, under the first and $88.30, or 8.97 percent, under the second. Source: FinanceFeeds calculation on that Nasdaq file, 21 October 2026.
Fiscal Q1 2027 guidance, still unamended in the pages reviewed here: revenue of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion, non-GAAP gross margin about 86.25 percent, non-GAAP diluted EPS of $38.15 plus or minus $1.00. Source: Exhibit 99.1, 30 September 2026.
Fiscal Q4 revenue was $54,229 million. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $33.42 and non-GAAP gross margin was 87.0 percent. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $133,188 million. Source: Exhibit 99.1 and the 30 September earnings deck.
The deck counts 26 Strategic Customer Agreements, over 35 percent of revenue through 2030, and $32 billion of customer commitments. Fiscal 2026 deposit proceeds on the cash-flow statement were $12,747 million. Source: deck and Exhibit 99.1, 30 September 2026.
Micron and the Taichung union signed an agreement on 21 October and canceled mediation set for 22 October. Terms were not disclosed. The Taoyuan one-day strike remained the stated plan. Source: Focus Taiwan, 21 October 2026.
Stock Analysis, citing S&P Global and last updated 19 October 2026, showed 49 analysts, an average target of $1,561, a low of $361, and a high of $3,000, against the $896.07 close. Source: Stock Analysis forecast page.
The 20 October Indium release does not disclose the check. The deal sits inside a July plan to invest up to $3 billion in the U.S. supply chain. Source: Micron investor release, 20 October 2026.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The obvious reading is that a stock 15.87 percent under its 30 September close of $1,065.11 has walked away from a record quarter. The decline is $169.04. The quarter has not been restated. Exhibit 99.1, for the year ended 3 September 2026, reports fiscal Q4 revenue of $54.23 billion, GAAP diluted EPS of $32.87, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $33.42. Full-year revenue is $133.19 billion in the highlight line and $133,188 million in the table, against $37,378 million a year earlier. Full-year non-GAAP EPS was $75.52.
The guide is unchanged: revenue of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion, a midpoint 13.41 percent above Q4 revenue of $54,229 million. Non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25 percent is 0.75 points under the 87.0 percent just printed. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is $38.15 plus or minus $1.00 on about 1.15 billion shares. Four times the revenue midpoint is $246 billion, a figure Micron did not publish. Mark Murphy’s outlook page calls fiscal Q1 the gross-margin floor, because higher fiscal 2026 incentive pay was absorbed into Q4 inventories, and puts operating expenses about $2.5 billion higher in fiscal 2027.
From Monday’s $904.90 the stock fell $8.83. From 14 October through 20 October the intraday high was $949.42 on 14 October and the intraday low was $858.00 on 15 October. Tuesday’s $896.07 is $53.35 under that high and $38.07 above that low.
Nasdaq’s quote feed at 7:40 a.m. Eastern on 21 October, still marked premarket, showed $922.66, up $26.59, or 2.97 percent. The completed close on that feed was still $896.07 at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on 20 October. The premarket sale is not the formula spot. The file’s intraday high is $1,255.00 on 25 June 2026, with that day’s close at $1,213.56.
Where the close sits on the tape
The chart uses saved Nasdaq daily closes from 2 March 2026, close $412.67, through 20 October. The top panel adds the 20-day and 50-day averages and a marker on $896.07. The bottom panel draws the bull, the base, and the bear. The lowest close in that window is $321.80 on 30 March 2026. The highest close is $1,213.56 on 25 June.
Nasdaq official daily closes for Micron (MU) through Tuesday 20 October 2026. The 20-day and 50-day lines are simple moving averages of that file. FinanceFeeds chart, 21 October 2026.
MeasureLevelVersus the $896.07 close
20-day average$1,016.05$119.98 below, or 11.81 percent
50-day average$984.37$88.30 below, or 8.97 percent
30 September close$1,065.11$169.04 below, or 15.87 percent
Five-session intraday high, 14 October$949.42$53.35 below
Five-session intraday low, 15 October$858.00$38.07 above
25 June intraday high$1,255.00$358.93 below. That day’s close was $1,213.56
Both averages sit above the close, and the 20-day line is still above the 50-day line.
Who is exposed
The named exposure is the Strategic Customer Agreements: 26 signed, take-or-pay, estimated at over 35 percent of revenue through 2030, some running into 2031. Three-quarters of that revenue has a pricing framework, a majority with a floor and a ceiling. Commitments are $32 billion, mostly deposits. Booked noncurrent customer contract liabilities were $12,895 million on 3 September 2026, against $568 million on 28 May, and deposit proceeds were $12,747 million. The commitment and the liability are different numbers.
Cloud Memory was $16,283 million at an 83 percent gross margin and Core Data Center was $18,002 million at 90 percent. Together that is $34,285 million, 63.22 percent of $54,229 million. Mobile and Client was $13,114 million and Automotive and Embedded was $6,824 million. The $54.23 billion quarter and the shortage language through 2028 record that print. DRAM was $39.8 billion, 73 percent of the quarter, and NAND was $14.1 billion, 26 percent. Data-center SSD revenue was nearly $10 billion, more than 10 times a year earlier. Micron’s earlier move toward SK Hynix in DRAM share is background, not a title input.
NVIDIA is the HBM name on the deck: agreements for the vast majority of calendar 2027 HBM bit supply, with significant price increases year over year, and a custom HBM4E part called NVHBM. No HBM dollar total is printed there. Samsung’s plan to more than double HBM4 output in 2027 is the competing supply line. The Indium funding in Rome, New York, buys high-purity minerals inside the plan to invest up to $3 billion, beside expected U.S. fab spend of more than $250 billion through 2035. The check itself is not disclosed.
What Micron has said, and what it has not
Sanjay Mehrotra, chairman and chief executive, said in Exhibit 99.1: “Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027.” He went on: “AI is becoming Super Intelligence (SI), and memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers’ platforms. We are increasing our investments in technology, products and manufacturing to help drive SI forward with our customers, and our Strategic Customer Agreements provide added confidence in the durability of Micron’s financial performance.”
The deck expects supply much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than in 2026, and in calendar 2027 and 2028, with NAND bit growth around the mid-20s percent and DRAM bit growth around the low-20s percent. It says Micron does not have line of sight to when supply and demand return to balance. Fourth-quarter operating cash flow was $43.97 billion. Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow was $89.68 billion, against $17.53 billion. Year-end cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash were $73.48 billion. The deck’s $75.48 billion liquidity line also counts an undrawn revolver. Fiscal 2026 buybacks were $650 million, and there were none in the fourth quarter.
Ben Tessone, senior vice president and chief procurement officer, said on 20 October: “Advanced memory manufacturing depends on a reliable supply of critical minerals. Enabling that requires engagements well beyond our direct suppliers.” He said the Indium partnership “expands U.S. capacity for critical minerals production.” Ross Berntson, Indium’s president and chief executive, said the decision “reflects the trust they’ve placed in our people and our ability to deliver.” Neither quote states the size of the check.
Scott DeBoer, president and chief technology and products officer, was scheduled to host a webinar on 21 October at 8 a.m. Mountain Time on DRAM, HBM, NAND, and Super Intelligence. The 19 October release promises a replay of about one year. No transcript is in the pages saved here, so this piece does not quote the webinar.
The labor split, and the supply calendar
Focus Taiwan is the account used for the unions. Micron and the Taichung union said they signed an agreement after constructive talks and canceled mediation for Thursday 22 October. Details were not disclosed. Micron hoped “other ongoing labor-management issues” could be addressed “in a spirit of mutual support.” The Taoyuan union had called a one-day Thursday strike in solidarity. As of press time, Taoyuan officials had not commented on the Taichung deal. Earlier that day the Taoyuan union said the strike plan did not close the door on talks.
The 7 October vote in that story was 1,994 of 2,012 ballots in favor. Jerry Lin, the Taoyuan union chairman, told that day’s news conference the union was considering a “surprise strike.” Headcount is about 12,300 in Taichung and about 3,000 in Taoyuan. The demand described is a mechanism distributing 15 percent of operating profits. A signed deal at the larger site, terms withheld, plus a one-day plan at the smaller site, does not amend the guide.
Gus Paschal’s post at 11:15 GMT on 21 October says the Taichung union signed, Thursday’s mediation is off, and the Taoyuan one-day strike is still on, with bonuses and profit-sharing unresolved. A second post two minutes later said shares were up more than 2 percent in the Wednesday premarket and that terms were undisclosed. Nasdaq’s later premarket last, $922.66 at 7:40 a.m. Eastern, up 2.97 percent, is the clock used for the live sale. Neither post replaces the $896.07 close.
The deck’s build dates run past Thursday: New York wafer output in calendar 2030, ID1 in mid-calendar 2027, ID2 and the Japan DRAM expansion in late calendar 2028, Tongluo shipments in mid-calendar 2027, Singapore HBM packaging in early calendar 2027, and a Singapore NAND fab in the second half of calendar 2028. No fiscal Q1 earnings date is in the saved pages. A deck line that Level 4 and higher autonomous vehicles typically carry more than 200GB of memory is a content comparison, not booked revenue.
Bull, base, and bear
The title numbers are a distribution around Tuesday’s close. They are not an older FinanceFeeds scenario and they are not the $1,561 street average. The spot is $896.07. The last 90 daily log-returns run from 12 June 2026, close $981.61, through 20 October. The 11 June close, the session before that window, was $995.87. Mu, the mean of those 90 log-returns, is -0.0011733132. Sigma, the sample standard deviation, is 0.0518549119.
One session dominates sigma and stays in the sample. On 30 July 2026 the close went from $739.00 to $874.66, a log-return of 0.1685373185, about 18.36 percent. N is 50 sessions from 21 October through 31 December 2026: eight sessions on 21 through 23 and 26 through 30 October, 20 November weekdays with Thanksgiving Day closed and the 27 November early close counted, and 22 December weekdays with Christmas Day closed and the 24 December early close counted.
The base is 896.07 times exp(50 times -0.0011733132), which is $845.01, or 5.70 percent under the close. The bull is 896.07 times exp(50 times mu, plus 1.5 times 0.0518549119 times the square root of 50), which is $1,464.63, or 63.45 percent above the close. The bear is 896.07 times exp(50 times mu, minus 1.0 times sigma times the square root of 50), which is $585.63, or 34.64 percent under the close. The bull is above the spot, so the no-drift fallback is not used. The negative drift stays inside the base.
CasePriceVersus the $896.07 spotWhat has to be true
Bull$1,464.63+63.45 percent, +$568.56The next 50 sessions travel the upside of this volatility, including moves of the size already inside sigma, and the $61.5 billion guide is not cut. The $1,561 average is a separate number.
Base$845.01-5.70 percent, -$51.06The stock compounds the recent mean daily log-return and nothing else. The guide can stay unchanged. A negative mu is enough to put the base under the close.
Bear$585.63-34.64 percent, -$310.44The same drift plus a one-standard-deviation move down. This is a volatility outcome on the Nasdaq file, not a Micron target and not a restatement of the quarter.
$896.07 divided by fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $75.52 is 11.87 times. Divided by $152.60, four times the Q1 non-GAAP EPS midpoint, it is 5.87 times, an annualization Micron did not publish. Stock Analysis shows fiscal 2027 consensus EPS of $176.55 and a 5.08 forward price-to-earnings ratio. The close divided by $176.55 is 5.08. Consensus revenue there is $274.54 billion, up 106.13 percent from $133.19 billion.
The house bull of $1,464.63 sits under the $1,561 average, the $1,550 median, Vivek Arya’s $1,550 on 15 October, and John Vinh’s $1,750 the same day, and above Jim Hin Kwong Au’s $1,400 on 8 October. The bear of $585.63 sits above the $361 low and under Jose Luis Pascual’s $621 Sell on 19 October. Gil Luria’s 7 October move from $2,100 to $3,000 is the high on that page. Those targets are a separate method.
What happens next
On 22 October, a Taoyuan one-day strike would hit a site of about 3,000 workers. Taichung, about 12,300, already has a signed agreement and a canceled mediation. That stoppage can move a session. It does not, on these documents, change the $61.5 billion guide. The withheld Taichung terms matter more than the fact of a signature.
On 29 October the $0.15 dividend is paid. The gap from $896.07 to the 20-day average of $1,016.05 is $119.98. The coupon does not close it.
Through 31 December, 50 sessions from the cited close, the base of $845.01 is the recent daily drift left alone. The bull of $1,464.63 needs the upside of a sigma that still includes 30 July. The bear of $585.63 needs the downside. An amended Q1 guide, a disclosed SCA price change, or a labor action past the one-day Taoyuan plan would be a new document. None of those is in the pages used here.
Frequently asked questions
Does Tuesday’s close still price Micron’s $61.5 billion fiscal Q1 guide?
No. Tuesday’s $896.07 close prices a wider, slightly negative 90-day distribution, with a bull case of $1,464.63, a base of $845.01, and a bear case of $585.63 through 31 December 2026. Micron published revenue guidance of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion on 30 September and has not amended it in the filings and releases reviewed here. The guide is the company’s number. The distribution is the tape’s number.
What is the Micron stock prediction through 31 December 2026?
The Micron stock prediction through 31 December 2026 is $1,464.63 in the bull case, $845.01 in the base case, and $585.63 in the bear case, from the $896.07 Nasdaq close on 20 October. The path uses 50 sessions, a mean log-return of -0.0011733132, and a sample standard deviation of 0.0518549119. Those prices are the house distribution. They are not the $1,561 average target on Stock Analysis.
Why is the base case below the close if the guide was not cut?
The base case only compounds the average daily log-return, and that average is negative. Over 50 sessions, $896.07 times the exponential of 50 times -0.0011733132 equals $845.01, about 5.70 percent under the close. A guide cut is not an input. The unamended $61.5 billion midpoint can stay on the books while the recent drift still points lower by year-end.
Did the dividend cause the drop from the 30 September close?
The board declared a $0.15 dividend on 30 September, payable on 29 October to shareholders of record on 14 October. The 30 September close was $1,065.11. Tuesday’s close was $169.04 lower. Fifteen cents is the coupon beside that decline, not the decline. The ex-dividend date has passed, and $0.15 does not close the $119.98 gap to the 20-day average.
What is the status of the Taiwan labor dispute?
Focus Taiwan reported on 21 October that Micron and the Taichung union signed an agreement and canceled mediation set for 22 October. Terms were not disclosed. The Taoyuan one-day strike that day was still the stated plan, after a 7 October vote of 1,994 in favor out of 2,012 ballots. The story puts about 12,300 workers in Taichung and about 3,000 in Taoyuan.
How do these prices compare with analyst targets?
The house bull of $1,464.63 is below the $1,561 average, the $1,550 median, Arya’s $1,550, and Vinh’s $1,750. The house bear of $585.63 is above the $361 street low and below Pascual’s $621 Sell target from 19 October. Stock Analysis, citing S&P Global, showed that range against the $896.07 close. The forecast page was last updated 19 October 2026. The title uses the distribution.
This is not financial advice.