By Updated 25 October 2026. Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday 23 October, up $3.55 or 3.14 percent, the highest settlement since 29 April and a gain of about 6 percent on the week; WTI closed at $103.27, up 3.8 percent (Reuters). Futures reopen at 6 pm ET on Sunday with two unresolved weekend stories: the Houthis’ Saturday claim of strikes on Aramco’s Yanbu facilities, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline, which Saudi Arabia has not confirmed, and Sunday-morning missile interceptions over Riyadh. Verdict: whether Yanbu was actually hit is the single most important unconfirmed fact for the open. Yanbu is the Red Sea outlet of the 7 million barrel-a-day pipeline that replaced Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz exports, and the September precedent is a week-long shutdown and cancelled European cargoes. If Riyadh confirms damage, $120 trades on the open; if Monday brings no evidence, Fed week and a White House nine days from the midterms pull the other way. Reference levels: $108 below, $120 above.
Key facts
Settlement: Brent $116.72, up $3.55 (3.14 percent), the highest since 29 April; WTI $103.27, up $3.80 (3.8 percent); Brent up about 6 percent on the week (Reuters). Brent traded above $117 during Friday’s session and was quoted at $117.23-$117.30 late (Kitco, Investing.com). “Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance after Iranian-backed Houthi rebels carried out a series of attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure,” said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist at LPL Financial.
Saturday’s claims: Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree listed Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery, crude pumping stations and the East-West Pipeline, plus King Khalid airport in Riyadh, King Fahd airport in Dammam, Najran airport and the Khamis Mushait airbase (France 24, Reuters). The Saudi-led coalition said its defences destroyed two ballistic missiles fired toward Yanbu and Taif after an earlier interception over Riyadh, and did not comment on damage to any facility. No Saudi official or independent source has confirmed a hit on oil infrastructure. The Houthis denied targeting Mecca and Medina, calling Saudi statements to that effect a “huge lie” (Al Jazeera).
Sunday: the coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, with explosions heard in the capital, a drone in the Riyadh region and a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait, and later ten ballistic missiles fired toward southern Saudi Arabia. Two terminals at King Khalid International Airport resumed operations after deadly attacks earlier this month (Al Jazeera, 25 October).
Why Yanbu matters: the East-West Pipeline runs about 1,200 km from Abqaiq to Yanbu and has been Saudi Arabia’s main export route since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in July; Aramco’s chief executive has put throughput near 7 million barrels a day. In September a Houthi drone attack shut the line, Aramco suspended Yanbu loadings on 15 September and cancelled late-September cargoes for European term buyers before flows resumed (Reuters, OilPrice.com). That episode is the template the market will price if Saturday’s claim is confirmed.
Washington: a US intelligence memo dated 23 October from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iranian “lethal plotting efforts” against US citizens “have reached advanced stages” in the Middle East; the State Department ordered non-emergency staff and families out of its Saudi missions and updated travel advisories for more than a dozen countries (Reuters, via Investing.com). Ambassador Tom Barrack said a strike on Iran this weekend was “absolutely” possible; President Trump replied “if that’s the case, I don’t know anything about it” and told a rally “we may do another little Epic Fury, or they’ll agree” (Times of Israel, Yahoo News). UN ambassador Mike Waltz said the naval blockade of Iran will be maintained indefinitely. No US strike had been reported by Sunday morning.
Tankers: the Washington Institute recorded at least 28 confirmed vessel strikes in the Strait of Hormuz in October, the worst month since the war began, and at least 113 attacks since February (Reuters, via Investing.com). “The market is concerned about these continued Iranian attacks on tankers that we’ve seen increase over the last week. While there has been an increase in oil transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz, that could change at any minute,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. The UAE reported an oil spill from an unidentified tanker off Umm Al Quwain (Reuters).
Supply responses: the US Energy Department authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, already at its lowest since 1982, for Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery; Germany’s stockpiling agency EBV tendered diesel, heating oil and crude from strategic reserves, its first release since the G7 agreed to releases in early October; the first Russian diesel cargo to the US under this month’s export deal is bound for New York; Libya shut a pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara fields; the Baker Hughes rig count held at 603 for a second week (Reuters).
Diplomacy: Trump said on Friday the US could end the war with Iran quickly but might let it “gradually wind down” (Reuters). Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is due to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow this week at a gas exporters’ summit, and IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said the agency is technically ready to resume verification in Iran under a political settlement (Reuters, via Investing.com).
Forecasts: the EIA’s October outlook has Brent averaging $105 in the fourth quarter; HSBC’s 2026 forecast is $90 with a stalemate scenario at $120; Goldman Sachs’ latest published December forecast is $90 (EIA, OilPrice.com, Yahoo Finance, as cited on Saturday’s page).
The open trades one unconfirmed fact
Friday’s settlement already priced a widening war; Saturday’s page made the case that the market was buying risk, not barrels. Saturday’s Houthi statement changes the question from risk to barrels, because the targets named are the export system itself. Rabigh is a refinery, pumping stations and the pipeline are the artery, and Yanbu is the terminal where the crude that used to leave through Hormuz now loads. In September one drone hit on that line was enough for a week without loadings and cancelled cargoes in Europe. The coalition’s statement that two missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif were destroyed is consistent with the attack having failed, and equally consistent with partial success, and the market will open without knowing which. The honest framing for Sunday evening is that Brent above $117 reflects the claim, and the first satellite imagery or Aramco notice on Monday decides whether it holds.
The Sunday interceptions over Riyadh add escalation without adding supply risk; airports and air defences are not barrels. What they do add is pressure on Washington. Non-emergency diplomats and families are leaving Saudi posts, the intelligence community has told the Secretary of State that Iranian plots are “in advanced stages”, and the president’s own envoy floated a weekend strike that did not happen. A US strike on Iran is the bull case on this page, and the midterms on 3 November, nine days away, are the reason it has not happened yet. Friday’s page noted that more oil is now moving through Hormuz than before the war, by the White House’s own account, which is why the SPR exchange, the German release and the Russian diesel cargo are small numbers that matter politically more than physically.
Fed week pulls the other way
Oil is now the Fed’s problem as much as the Fed is oil’s. Every one of the 100 economists in last week’s Reuters poll expects a December hike, and the chain runs through this market: Brent at $116 feeds Thursday’s PCE print, PCE feeds December odds at 84 percent (Yardeni Research), and the 10-year at 5 percent feeds the equity selloff that took the Nasdaq down 2.9 percent on Thursday. That loop is already hurting the demand side of the oil story: gold’s week-ahead page shows a metals complex being liquidated into the same rate expectations, and Friday’s FX summary traced the oil shock through the dollar and the central-bank calendar. A Fed that sounds hawkish on Wednesday and a PCE print that runs hot on Thursday are, for oil, demand-destruction headlines. Exxon Mobil’s results on Friday close the week with the producer’s view of the quarter.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
ScenarioBrentWhat has to happenAnchor
Bear$108Saudi Arabia reports no damage at Yanbu or Rabigh, no US strike, a ceasefire signal before the midterms, more reserve releases, and a hawkish Fed plus hot PCE hit demand expectations.About 7.5 percent below Friday’s $116.72, where Brent traded on 20-22 October before the Saudi strikes began, and toward the EIA’s $105 fourth-quarter average.
Base$112-$120Attacks and interceptions continue at the weekend’s pace, Yanbu’s status stays ambiguous, Hormuz flows stay up and the market trades headlines through the Fed.Friday’s range extended both ways; HSBC’s $120 stalemate level caps it.
Bull$120Aramco confirms damage at Yanbu or Rabigh and suspends loadings as in September, or the US resumes strikes on Iran, or Hormuz flows fall.HSBC’s stalemate scenario, about 2.8 percent above Friday’s settlement and above the $117.30 late-Friday quote.
The bear case sits below Friday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
Sunday 6 pm ET: the futures open. The first prints tell you whether the market believes the Yanbu claim.
Monday: any Aramco loading notice, satellite imagery of Yanbu, Rabigh or the pumping stations, and tanker-tracking data on Red Sea loadings. Confirmation of damage is the $120 trigger; a normal loading schedule is the $112 one.
Washington: whether a strike on Iran follows the Barrack comments and the evacuation orders, or whether the midterm calendar holds it back for nine more days.
Wednesday 2 pm EDT: the Fed. A hawkish December signal is a demand headline for oil.
Thursday 8:30 am EDT: September PCE and third-quarter GDP, the first inflation data with October’s oil in it.
Friday: Exxon Mobil’s third-quarter results and the Baker Hughes rig count, unchanged at 603 for two weeks.
Quick take: Brent reopens on Sunday evening from a $116.72 settlement, its highest since April, with an unconfirmed Houthi claim on Yanbu, Rabigh and the East-West Pipeline on one side and Fed week, a 5 percent 10-year and a White House nine days from the midterms on the other. Confirmed damage at Yanbu or a US strike on Iran opens $120. No damage and a hawkish Fed open $108. Until Monday’s evidence arrives, $112-$120 is the range.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday 23 October 2026, up 3.14 percent and the highest since 29 April, and was quoted near $117.30 late in the session (Reuters, Investing.com). Markets are closed on Sunday; futures reopen at 6 pm ET.
Did the Houthis hit Yanbu?
Unconfirmed. The Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline on Saturday 24 October. The Saudi-led coalition said two ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif were intercepted and has not reported damage (France 24, Reuters, Investing.com).
Why does Yanbu matter so much for oil prices?
Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in July, the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu has carried most Saudi crude exports, about 7 million barrels a day according to Aramco’s chief executive. A September drone attack shut the line and halted Yanbu loadings for days (Reuters, OilPrice.com).
Will the US strike Iran this week?
Unknown. Ambassador Tom Barrack said a weekend strike was “absolutely” possible, President Trump said he knew nothing of such plans, and no strike had been reported by Sunday morning. The midterm elections are on 3 November.
How does the Fed meeting affect oil?
A hold is priced at more than 90 percent for Wednesday. Oil at $116 is a reason December hike odds sit at 84 percent, and a hawkish Fed plus higher yields weigh on demand expectations and equities (Reuters, Yardeni Research).
What is the WTI price?
WTI settled at $103.27 on Friday, up $3.80 or 3.8 percent, and gained about 2 percent on the week (Reuters).
Where do forecasters see Brent?
The EIA’s October outlook has $105 for the fourth quarter; HSBC’s stalemate scenario is $120 and its 2026 base case $90; Goldman Sachs’ latest December forecast is $90.
Sources: Reuters (Nicole Jao, Siddharth Cavale, Stephanie Kelly and Sudarshan Varadhan, settlement prices, Turnquist and Lipow quotes, SPR, EBV, Libya, Russian diesel, rig count, UAE spill, 23 October 2026, via Yahoo Finance); France 24 and Reuters (Saree’s Saturday target list and coalition interceptions, 24 October); Al Jazeera (Sunday interceptions, airport reopening, Houthi denial on Mecca and Medina, 25 October); Reuters via Investing.com (Clayton memo, State Department order, Washington Institute shipping data, Waltz, Grossi, Pezeshkian, late-Friday Brent quote, updated 24 October); Times of Israel and Yahoo News (Barrack and Trump remarks, 23-24 October); OilPrice.com and Reuters (September Yanbu suspension and cargo cancellations, 15-18 September); Yardeni Research (FedWatch and the week’s calendar, 25 October); Reuters poll of economists (20 October); EIA October Short-Term Energy Outlook; HSBC and Goldman Sachs forecasts as cited on FinanceFeeds’ 24 October page.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile and geopolitical claims cited here are attributed to their sources and may be unverified. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.