By Kalshi is approaching the November 3 US midterm elections following a record month of trading, with October volume estimated at approximately $65 billion and cumulative activity on election-related contracts reaching nearly $1.1 billion by late October.
The October figure, reported on October 29, represented an increase of approximately 10% from September’s previous monthly record.
Rival Polymarket US recorded approximately $10 billion in October month-to-date trading, according to the same report, reflecting growing competition between federally regulated prediction exchanges. Separately, CNN reported on October 23 that more than $1.4 billion had been traded across prediction markets tied to the 2026 midterms.
Kalshi accounted for nearly $1.1 billion of that activity, according to a company spokesperson. The election figure covers a broader period than October and includes contracts referencing congressional races, turnout, endorsements, debates and campaign events.
Importantly, the $65 billion figure represents overall trading activity across Kalshi’s markets, not money wagered exclusively on the elections.
Election Contracts Expand as November 3 Approaches
Kalshi offers contracts covering control of the House of Representatives and Senate, individual congressional contests, gubernatorial elections and other political developments. Its markets allow eligible participants to buy contracts that settle according to specified outcomes.
For a standard binary contract, a correct position pays $1 at settlement, while the opposite outcome pays nothing. Contract prices fluctuate as traders respond to polling, campaign developments and other information. Unlike traditional opinion polls, these prices reflect transactions by market participants rather than responses from a representative sample of voters.
The distinction matters when interpreting election probabilities, particularly in markets with limited liquidity or concentrated trading activity. Kalshi has introduced additional transparency features ahead of Election Day, including historical forecast-accuracy measures and warnings identifying lower-volume markets.
The company said election-market viewers outnumber active traders by approximately five to one, indicating that many visitors use the platform primarily to monitor expectations. The growing audience has increased the visibility of prediction markets in political reporting, although trading prices should not be interpreted as guaranteed forecasts.
October’s overall trading record also reflects activity beyond politics, including sports, economics and financial markets. Consequently, the increase cannot be attributed entirely to election-related demand.
Record Activity Brings Regulatory and Market Scrutiny
Kalshi operates as a designated contract market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That status distinguishes its US business from offshore prediction platforms operating under different regulatory arrangements. The expansion of election contracts has nevertheless intensified questions about market integrity, insider information and the appropriate oversight of event-based derivatives.
Political markets can be influenced by large individual positions, rapidly changing information and uncertainty surrounding the interpretation of contract settlement rules. These characteristics make transparency and surveillance important as trading volumes increase. Kalshi’s growth also coincides with broader institutional interest in prediction markets as sources of information about future events.
However, notional trading volume should not be confused with customer deposits, net investment inflows or exchange revenue. Reported contract volume can reflect repeated trading of the same economic exposure and may use different measurement conventions across platforms. The October figures are also preliminary and require consistent methodology before direct comparisons can establish relative market share.
For Kalshi, November 3 represents an important test of its ability to handle elevated trading activity and settle election contracts according to published rules. The period following the election will provide another measure of whether record engagement reflects a sustained expansion of prediction markets or activity concentrated around a major political event.
For the wider industry, the distinction between election-driven interest and recurring demand across other contract categories will be central to assessing longer-term growth.