By SpaceX stock (SPCX) closed Wednesday at $145.23, down 2.25% from $148.58, with an intraday low of $142.13 and volume of 96.9 million shares against a 103.2 million average. That leaves the shares 7.58% above the $135 price at which the June listing was sold, and 35.6% below the $225.64 high set four days after it.
Fitch published a commentary that morning cutting its leverage forecast for the company and affirming that a $40 billion equipment lease would not move the rating. SpaceX stock fell anyway, which points at share supply rather than credit as the thing weighing on it.
SpaceX Stock (SPCX) Sits 7.6% Above Its IPO and 35.6% Below Its June Peak
The listing priced 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135 on 11 June, with trading opening the following day. Fitch puts the proceeds at $85.7 billion, which it calls the largest public offering in history. The high came on 16 June and SpaceX stock has not approached it since.
The 50-day moving average sits at $149.43, above Wednesday’s close, inside a range the stock has held for months. Buyers have defended $140 twice this month, $172 capped rallies in June and October, and the August low near $108 sits below support.
SpaceX stock (SPCX) peaked four days after its June listing and has spent every month since between $108 and $172. Source: TradingViewThe 22 October Unlock Freed 1.3 Billion Shares and Took 9% Off
SpaceX stock fell about 9% on 22 October when a release of up to 1.3 billion shares was triggered by the second full trading day after third-quarter results. That is roughly 30% of a 4.29 billion share float arriving in one tranche.
From 22 to 27 October, Rocket Lab rose 13.8%, Firefly Aerospace 13.6%, Intuitive Machines 10.6% and AST SpaceMobile 8.2%, while SpaceX stock managed 2.6%. The sector rallied and the newly listed name with 1.3 billion shares coming free did not. The remaining 180-day tranche, up to 797.6 million shares, releases in early December. Elon Musk’s own holding stays locked until 12 June 2027.
Investor Takeaway
SpaceX stock trades 7.58% above its $135 IPO price and 35.6% below the $225.64 high reached four days after listing.
Fitch Cut Its Leverage Forecast to 1.0x and Left the Lease Out of Debt
Fitch said the BBB+ rating would be unaffected by the binding commitment to the roughly $40 billion master finance lease, because the transaction funds compute capacity already inside its June forecast. It now projects EBITDA leverage of 1.5x at the end of 2026, falling to about 1.0x in 2027, against management’s 2x-3x gross target. Those figures replace the 1.7x and 1.9x it published in June, a material easing in the credit backdrop for SpaceX stock.
Fitch does not add the lease payments to its primary leverage metric as debt, which makes the counting method matter as much as the 1.0x. It expects to treat the deal like other equipment lease financings, excluding the balance while reflecting amortization and interest as a cut to Fitch-calculated EBITDA. A supplemental lease-adjusted measure will run alongside it, and Fitch says it will confirm the treatment against the final documentation.
On the June scale, where leverage sustained above 2.5x is a downgrade factor and below 1.5x an upgrade factor, the forecast now sits on the upgrade side. Two notches of governance constraint and the absence of a visible path to positive free cash flow are what hold the rating at BBB+.
One Customer at 34.5% of Revenue Is Fitch’s Principal Risk
A correction in compute pricing while capital is committed to longer-gestation projects is the principal threat to the rating, Fitch says. The lease “sharpens that exposure by adding a fixed charge that does not adjust for compute pricing or utilization, while the revenue supporting it is both concentrated and short dated.” One Super Intelligence customer supplied 34.5% of consolidated revenue in the third quarter and 24.2% year to date, up from below 10% a year earlier, on cloud contracts that typically run three years but are terminable by either side on 90 days’ notice.
Deployment at scale is the offset Fitch sets against the concentration, and nameplate compute reached 1.7 gigawatts at 30 September from 0.6 a year earlier, with its rating case assuming averages of 5.0 gigawatts in 2027 and 9.5 in 2028. Super Intelligence revenue rose to $7.6 billion from $0.8 billion, and management cites payback inside a year on that infrastructure. Capital spending exceeds $200 billion annually in 2027 and 2028 on Fitch’s numbers, against revenue approaching $200 billion in 2027, which is why free cash flow stays deeply negative.
Liquidity was $89.9 billion at 30 September against $38.0 billion of total debt and no material principal due until July 2031. SpaceX put the $40 billion off its balance sheet through a special purpose vehicle, after an earlier sale-leaseback failed auditor review. The market has priced such structures warily across AI data center borrowers all autumn, and Musk himself warned that more than 200 AI cloud firms face consolidation.
MoffettNathanson’s $142 Target Is Already Below the Price
MarketBeat records a consensus of $244.97 across 42 analysts, with 34 of them positive. The lowest published target belongs to MoffettNathanson at $142, raised from $131 on 14 September and still beneath Wednesday’s close. Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy at $245 on 21 October, with Mizuho at $205 and Bernstein at $268.
The street average sits 69% above the price while the lowest target sits below it, a spread that reflects unresolved disagreement. Source: MarketBeat · Chart: FinanceFeedsSpaceX stock traded at $143.29 in Thursday pre-market dealing, down a further 1.34%. The December release and the fourth-quarter capital spending number are the next two dates that matter for SpaceX stock, and both land before a Federal Reserve meeting markets had priced at an 84% chance of a hike. Investors rewarded Oracle for capping new raises and dating its own cash-flow turn the same day SpaceX stock fell.
Investor Takeaway
Fitch cut its EBITDA leverage forecast for SpaceX stock to 1.5x at the end of 2026 and about 1.0x in 2027, below the 1.5x level its June criteria list as an upgrade factor.