By Updated 24 October 2026. Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday 23 October, up $3.55 or 3.14 percent, the highest settlement since 29 April and a gain of about 6 percent on the week (Reuters). WTI closed at $103.27, up 3.8 percent. Verdict: the market is pricing a widening war, not a supply number. Houthi strikes inside Saudi Arabia, an unverified Iranian claim of seven tankers hit, and growing expectations that the US resumes strikes on Iran pushed Brent above $117 intraday. The week ahead adds the Fed on Wednesday and the US midterms ten days out, both of which push Washington toward wanting oil lower. Reference levels: $108 below, $120 above.
Key facts
Settlement: Brent $116.72, up $3.55 (3.14 percent), the highest since 29 April; WTI $103.27, up $3.80 (3.8 percent). On the week Brent rose about 6 percent and WTI 2.3 percent (Reuters); CNBC measured the WTI week at 2 percent. Brent traded above $117 during the session and was near $117.23 late, WTI near $103.07 (Kitco). CBS News called the move above $117 the highest of the war.
Saudi front: Iran-backed Houthis carried out a series of attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure. Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters on Thursday. Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has intensified since the group moved toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait last month (Reuters). “Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance,” said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist at LPL Financial.
Hormuz: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said four tankers were struck during ship-to-ship transfers in the northern Gulf and three more were disabled by mines west of the strait. None of the seven incidents has been independently confirmed; UKMTO has confirmed two attacks on tankers this week (gCaptain, Al Jazeera). President Trump said on Truth Social that Tehran is fabricating incidents to push oil up before the 3 November midterms, and that more oil is moving through the strait than before the war (Washington Times). The IRGC threatened US bases if Washington keeps escorting ships.
Tanker flows: “The market is concerned about these continued Iranian attacks on tankers,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, adding that flows out of Hormuz have increased but that “could change at any minute.” A Washington think tank counted October as the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in and around the strait. UAE authorities reported an oil spill from an unidentified tanker off Umm Al Quwain (Reuters).
Washington: Trump said on Friday the US could end the war with Iran quickly but might instead let it wind down gradually (Reuters); his UN ambassador said the war could last another year (CBS News). The Energy Department authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the SPR, now at its lowest level since 1982, for Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery. A tanker carrying the first Russian diesel to the US since the export agreement is bound for New York (Reuters).
Other supply: Germany’s stockpiling agency EBV put diesel, heating oil and crude up for sale, its first release since the G7 agreed to releases in early October. Libya shut a pipeline valve carrying oil from the Hamada and Tahara fields to Zawiya. Baker Hughes’ US oil and gas rig count was unchanged at 603 for a second week (Reuters).
Forecasts: the EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook has Brent averaging $105 in the fourth quarter, $14 above its September view. HSBC raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 from $80 and said a stalemate in which flows stay constrained could take Brent to $120 (OilPrice.com). Goldman Sachs’ latest published December Brent forecast is $90, set earlier in October when Brent was near $107 (Yahoo Finance). A late-September roundup had Morgan Stanley at $105 and UBS at $100 for the fourth quarter (EnergyNow).
Two fronts and an election
Friday’s $3.55 jump came from the Saudi side, not the strait. Friday morning’s page was built around the IRGC’s seven-tanker claim and Aramco emptying Dhahran; by the settlement the market had moved past the claim, which remains unverified, to the fact that the Houthis are hitting energy infrastructure inside the kingdom. Lipow’s point is the one to hold onto: physical flows out of Hormuz have actually increased, and the price is rising anyway because the market is pricing the probability that they stop. That is a risk premium, and risk premiums deflate as fast as they build.
What makes this week different is the calendar. The Fed decides on Wednesday with Brent at $116, which we cover on the gold week-ahead page, and the midterms are on 3 November. Both give Washington a reason to want oil lower in the next ten days: the SPR exchange, the Russian diesel deal and Trump’s public argument that Iran is “faking hits” all point that way. The counterweight is the UN ambassador’s line that the war could last another year, and Reuters’ report that traders increasingly expect US strikes on Iran to resume within weeks. If those strikes come, the risk premium builds; if a ceasefire path opens before the election, it unwinds.
Where the forecasters sit
Every published bank and agency number is below the screen. The EIA’s fourth-quarter average of $105 is $12 under Friday’s settlement; HSBC’s $120 is a stalemate scenario, not a base case; Goldman’s $90 December view was written at $107 and has been overtaken by events. That gap is the bear case in plain sight: the forecasters assume the Gulf disruption eases, and the price assumes it does not. The Friday FX summary shows the same oil shock pulling the dollar higher and bonds lower, which is the macro mix that eventually destroys demand. Thursday’s Nasdaq drop, covered on the Nasdaq page, was the first sign of equities noticing.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
ScenarioBrentWhat has to happenAnchor
Bear$108No US strikes, a ceasefire signal before the midterms, more SPR and G7 releases, and the equity selloff hits demand expectations.About 7.5 percent below Friday’s $116.72, back to where Brent traded on 20-22 October before the Saudi strikes, and toward the EIA’s $105 fourth-quarter average.
Base$112-$120Attacks on Saudi infrastructure and tankers continue at the current pace, Hormuz flows stay up, the Fed holds and the market trades headlines.Friday’s range extended both ways; HSBC’s $120 stalemate level caps it.
Bull$120The US resumes strikes on Iran, a confirmed hit on a loaded tanker or a Saudi export facility, or Hormuz flows fall.HSBC’s stalemate scenario, about 2.8 percent above Friday’s settlement and above the $117.23 intraday high.
The bear case sits below Friday’s settlement. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
Saudi Arabia: any strike that reaches export terminals or processing plants rather than the periphery. Aramco’s Dhahran evacuation is the tell to watch for reversal.
Hormuz confirmations: UKMTO’s count, not the IRGC’s. Two confirmed attacks against seven claimed is the gap the market is pricing.
US strikes: Reuters says traders expect them within weeks. A date, or a denial, moves the premium either way.
Wednesday: the Fed at 2 pm EDT with oil at $116. Hawkish language on energy inflation is a demand negative.
Midterms: 3 November. Expect more SPR and diesel actions from Washington in the run-up.
Quick take: Brent settled at $116.72, its highest since 29 April, after Houthi strikes inside Saudi Arabia and an unverified Iranian claim of seven tankers hit; WTI closed at $103.27. Flows through Hormuz are up, so this is a risk premium. Expect $112-$120 while the headlines keep coming. A ceasefire signal or more Washington supply actions before the midterms open $108. US strikes on Iran or a hit on Saudi exports open $120.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday 23 October 2026, up $3.55 or 3.14 percent, the highest settlement since 29 April (Reuters). Markets reopen on Sunday evening US time.
Why did oil rise on Friday?
Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure, Saudi Aramco’s evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters, an oil spill off the UAE and growing expectations that the US resumes strikes on Iran (Reuters, CNBC).
Were seven tankers really hit in the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed four were struck and three disabled by mines. None has been independently confirmed; UKMTO confirmed two tanker attacks this week, and President Trump accused Tehran of fabricating the incidents (gCaptain, Washington Times).
What is the WTI price?
WTI closed at $103.27 on Friday, up $3.80 or 3.8 percent, and gained 2.3 percent on the week (Reuters).
What do the banks forecast?
The EIA sees Brent averaging $105 in the fourth quarter; HSBC’s 2026 forecast is $90 with a $120 stalemate scenario; Goldman Sachs’ latest December view is $90; Morgan Stanley had $105 and UBS $100 for the fourth quarter in September.
Is the US releasing oil from the SPR?
The Energy Department authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels for Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery. The SPR is at its lowest level since 1982. Germany also began its first G7-agreed stock release (Reuters).
What happens to oil at the Fed meeting?
The Fed decides on Wednesday 28 October with oil at $116. Energy is the main reason markets price a December hike at 80-90 percent, so hawkish language is a demand negative for crude.
Sources: Reuters (settlement prices, weekly changes, Turnquist and Lipow quotes, Saudi attacks, UAE spill, SPR exchange, Germany, Libya, Russian diesel, rig count, 23 October 2026); CNBC (WTI weekly change, six-month high, 23 October); Kitco (intraday highs, 23 October); CBS News live coverage (Brent above $117, UN ambassador comment, 23 October); gCaptain and Al Jazeera (IRGC claim, UKMTO confirmations, 22-23 October); Washington Times (Trump Truth Social post, 22 October); EIA October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook; OilPrice.com (HSBC forecast); Yahoo Finance (Goldman Sachs December forecast); EnergyNow (September bank roundup).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.